Why does Donald Trump possibly want a recession?

Donald Trump’s second presidential term has brought with it a flurry of changes to the economy, though not necessarily in a good way. In between his eyebrow-raising foreign policy and a raft of surprising executive orders, it’s Trump’s economic policies that have pulled focus in recent weeks, thanks in no small part to his sweeping tariffs and mass government firings facilitated by the Department of Government Efficiency.

These two key factors have threatened to raise the cost of living and have contributed to an uptick in the unemployment rate, respectively, leaving many to wonder whether a recession is on the horizon for 2025. Trump responded to these concerns in a recent interview, so how exactly does the president feel about a possible recession?

The economic outlook has dimmed in recent weeks

“It’s not in my habit to agree with the Wall Street Journal—But Donald, they point out that even though you’re a very smart guy, this is a very dumb thing to do,” says PM Trudeau, addressing President Trump after U.S. decision to impose tariffs on Canadian goods.
#cdnpoli pic.twitter.com/QgPWPHvZ01

— CPAC (@CPAC_TV) March 4, 2025

The somewhat rosy economic outlook that greeted Trump’s return to the White House has dimmed in recent weeks. The president’s unconventional use of sweeping tariffs — which saw him slap Canada, Mexico and China with sizable taxes on a major chunk of goods — has raised concerns that the price of everyday items will increase. 

While Trump has since delayed those tariffs, after swift rebuke from the governments of each of those named countries, the economy is also more broadly enduring an increase in the unemployment rate, which ticked up to 4.1% in February. This figure was boosted by the administration itself, which has enacted mass layoffs as part of the cost-cutting DOGE program led by billionaire Elon Musk. 

Why does Trump think a recession might be necessary?

BREAKING: Donald Trump just admitted a recession may be coming this year because of his economic policies. What a disaster.

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— Democratic Wins Media (@DemocraticWins) March 9, 2025

As the impact of Trump’s tariffs and unemployment looms, the president has braced Americans with the possibility of a recession. Speaking of the economic downturn in a recent interview with Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo, Trump refused to rule out the possibility of a recession in 2025, saying he “hate[s] to predict things like that.” He indicated that a recession may be inevitable as part of the growing pains needed to enact his long-term economic agenda.

“There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big,” Trump said. “We’re bringing wealth back to America, that’s a big thing.” The president went on to say that fulfilling his economic agenda “takes a little time,” and warned that “we’re going to have disruption.” Those disruptions have already threatened the price of everyday goods like groceries and automobiles, which are expected to rise if Trump’s tariffs go into effect.

Similar recession talking points were echoed by the broader Trump camp

Donald Trump, who ran on the economy, refuses to rule out a recession in 2025.

The senseless trade wars and tariffs of Donald Trump represent presidential self-sabotage of the US economy. pic.twitter.com/woLfmHAFUD

— Ritchie Torres (@RitchieTorres) March 10, 2025

Trump’s sentiments around bracing for an economic downturn were reiterated by other members of his administration. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett recently said (per CNBC) that Americans should expect “some blips” in the economic outlook throughout this quarter, but blamed this on what he called “the Biden inheritance.” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, however, was less inclined to predict a recession, telling NBC News that “there’s going to be no recession” and instead insisting that “Trump is bringing growth to America.”