iPhone shipments to decline by about 15% in 2024

Apple’s iPhone shipments are expected to decline by about 15% in 2024. This information comes from Ming-Chi Kuo, one of the best-known Apple analysts out there.

The iPhone shipments are expected to decline by about 15% in 2024

He pointed out that Apple may have the “most significant decline” amongst the major smartphone manufacturers in 2024. Why is this happening, though? Well, the analyst did mention that “structural changes” are to blame, plus no lack of compelling upgrades.

Apple is expected to see around 200 million iPhone shipments in 2024, which is about 15% less than in 2023. The iPhone 15 series and iPhone 16 series shipments will decline by 10-15% YoY in H1 and H2 of 2024, compared to iPhone 14 series shipments in H1 2023, and iPhone 15 series shipments in H2 2023, respectively.

Samsung’s shipments, on the other hand, are expected to grow

Samsung, on the other hand, is expected to see increased shipments for its Galaxy S24 series. The shipments are expected to increase by 5-10% in 2024. The analyst did mention generative AI as part of the reason why.

He also mentioned that Apple’s weekly shipments in China have declined by 30-40% YoY in recent weeks. That trend is also expected to continue, he noted. Why? Well, the main reason for that is the return of Huawei, but foldable phones also have something to do with it.

Ming-Chi Kuo believes we’ll see far more significant changes to iPhones in 2025

Ming-Chi Kuo said that more significant changes for the iPhone are expected in 2025, with the iPhone 17, at the earliest. That’s also when more compelling generative AI features are expected from the Cupertino giant.

This is not the first time we’re hearing that the iPhone 16 series won’t bring major changes to the table. Based on a research note by Barclays, which arrived earlier this month, the iPhone 16 series will bring “very little” change.

It seems like 2024 won’t be a great year for iPhones, but things could change drastically in 2025. It remains to be seen, this is just a projection by Ming-Chi Kuo, of course.