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Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom and The Little Mermaid have more in common than being CGI-fueled box office extravaganzas that take place under the ocean and focusing on the mystical creatures who inhabit it.
Indeed, something fans have picked up on with both movies is the noticeable lack of a lengthy runway for marketing leading up to each film’s release. However, can Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom overcome this obstacle and actually make a splash with audiences?
Specifically, we’re talking about how both Aquaman 2 and The Little Mermaid had a noticeable lack of a trailer before the movie came out, with the Disney musical seemingly releasing its first promo at the very last minute. The live-action remake of the classic Hans Christian Andersen fairy tale did not see its full-blown trailer until Mar. 12, with the movie releasing just 75 days later, on May 26.
As for the forthcoming Jason Momoa-starring DC film, we haven’t even seen a trailer yet, even though it is set for release less than four months from now. The deafening silence from Warner Bros. on the second chapter, and follow-up to the one and only DCEU movie that earned $1 billion at the worldwide box office, has not been lost on its supporters.
To try and gauge what Aquaman 2‘s box office fate might be let us compare and contrast with how The Little Mermaid unfolded. Like the DC superhero movie, there was some negative publicity surrounding the lack of a trailer prior to its eventual unveiling. It got to the point that director Rob Marshall was forced to address this issue, explaining in an interview back in February that production delays due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the difficulty of choreographing all of the musical numbers in zero gravity meant the film was still being finished up at the time.
Despite this tell-tale sign that had many pegging The Little Mermaid as a disastrous flop even before it was released, that did not pan out to be quite the case, surprisingly enough. As Forbes originally reported, The Little Mermaid‘s worldwide gross of $561 million against a $265.2 million budget means it actually did eke out a profit of about $70 million. While that number could go down once we find out more information about post-production costs, the film’s strong presence on video rental platforms suggests it will at least break even in the long run. Case in point: The Little Mermaid debuted at number one on the home rental charts for the week of Jul. 29, according to The Numbers.
Bear in mind, there were already two teasers for The Little Mermaid at the time of Marshall’s interview. It is now roughly the same relative point in time for Aquaman 2‘s run-up to release, and yet, no public solo teaser for it has come out. There are a couple of other worrying signs that indicate Aquaman 2 could be in even worse trouble than The Little Mermaid, and it won’t have the same opportunity to turn things around as the Disney film had.
For instance, DC could have sown the seeds of hype for Aquaman 2 at San Diego Comic-Con last summer, but the brand utterly dropped the ball in that regard with the title’s complete absence, as our sister site The Mary Sue reported. What’s more, the lack of a trailer means it now has the dishonorable record of having the shortest promotional window for a DCEU movie of all time, at less than 110 days at this point.
The Little Mermaid‘s low bar of breaking even with its shorter promotional window is a resounding success story when you compare that to the monumental flops that have been plaguing DC movies nowadays, such as Shazam! Fury of the Gods and The Flash. Though the jury is still out on Blue Beetle, it is not looking hopeful so far that it will be anything other than a resounding failure at the box office as well. Unfortunately, the evidence is stacking up that Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom may succumb to a similar fate, making us wonder if WB should just abandon ship and give it the Batgirl treatment and cancel its release entirely. It also probably doesn’t help that the film is set to co-star the controversial actor Amber Heard in the role of Mera once again, after a highly publicized and live-streamed trial involving her ex-husband Johnny Depp arguably did absolutely no favors for either of the star’s reputations.
Another thing working against Aquaman 2‘s potential at the box office is the fact that there are two strikes happening in Hollywood right now with the Writers Guild of America and the Screen Actors Guild. The damage those strikes pose to promotional opportunities led to the delay for Dune: Part Two, so it is arguably not a stretch to think the comic book action tentpole could also be hurt by these labor union disputes.
In the end, this really is a toss-up as to whether Aquaman 2 will succeed or fail. Everything on paper points to the film sinking to the bottom of the ocean. Even still, we can’t help but be intrigued by the idea that a buildup of anticipation from the lack of marketing might actually lead to a word-of-mouth explosion of hype once that first trailer does drop. After all, the first film was something of a surprise hit.
I guess we’ll all have to see just how empty or full the theaters are when Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom comes to the big screen on Dec. 20.